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Foreign Exchange Daily News Friday 10th February, 2012

admin — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:32:43 +0000

The Greek coalition government has reached common ground on the pension cut reforms which was the last sticking point. There is still however disbelief over the effectiveness of the new Greek austerity plan and this is making the Euro group reluctant to sign off on a fresh second bailout worth €130 billion. These are the most painful austerity measures that Greeks will witness in their life time.

The USD/CHF cross is trading in the positive territory on Friday ahead of the inflation data which is due later on today. The consensus expects a contraction of 0.3% MoM and a 0.7% print over the last year.

The Bank of England agreed on further easing measures and is going to inject 50 billion into the British economy. The Bank of England has decided to maintain interest rates at the current level 0.5% where they have stood since 2009.

The number of Americans claiming for unemployment insurance payment has fallen to 358 thousand from 373 thousand in the weekending 31st January. These levels should now be consistent with solid payroll gains.

The EUR/USD is trading lower this morning as risk appetite appears to wane. Greece is still the focus of attention as yesterdays deal seems to be insufficient and many market participants have started to questions its implementation. The cross is down 0.15% at 1.3255 at the time of writing.

Resistances at 1.5934 have repelled the GBP/USD which is expected to slowly slide down to 1.5730 first of all and then down to 1.5660.

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Daily Foreign Exchange News Wednesday 9th February, 2012

admin — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 08:32:24 +0000

Last night the Greek talks ended past midnight with no deal according to sources. The Greek political chiefs seem to be disagreeing about the pension cuts but do seem to have agreed about cutting the minimum wage by 30%. We understand that this is the last sticking point.

The EUR/USD has now left the 1.3300 mark after the Asian close on Thursday. As we write this morning the cross is up 0.40% at 1.3301 with resistances levels waiting at 1.3280 ahead of 1.3436 then 1.3550 and 1.3582.

The GBP/AUD is under a consolidation phase near record lows high are currently at 1.4645 after the rejection of a session high in the 1.4700 area.

The GBP/USD has bounced off a 200 day ma at 1.5937 and is now heading down to 1.5730 which is leaving less chance for further gains.

US stocks closed positive yesterday whilst the investors waited for the outcome of negotiations between Greece and the troika.

Swiss unemployment remained unchanged in January and the jobless rate was 3.1 per cent which was the same as in December.

Latest FX News Wednesday 8th February, 2012

admin — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 08:34:51 +0000

We have no news to report on the Greek deal that the Troika has delayed the presentation of the final draft until tomorrow. We will have to wait and see but it is thought that the Greek government is preparing a final version of n agreement on a budget and structural measures required for a 130 billion euro bailout.

Unemployment in Switzerland has risen to 3.4% in January although this was below the 3.5% that was expected and was slightly higher than the 3.3% of December. The USD/CHF was hammered on Tuesday as risk on trade sharpened. The USD/CHF is losing just 0.01% at 0.9123 and the next resistance levels are located at 0.9179 ahead of 0.9263.

The EUR/USD is hitting fresh highs above 1.3280 after bouncing off of a session low at 1.3240 following a quiet session in the Asian session. There have been reported large stops above 1.3270 and we have seen no rush to cover this so it suggests fresh selling interest.

Yesterday saw most of the British stocks tumble amid investors waiting a solution of the Greek sovereign debt crisis. UK investors were negatively surprised about the German industrial output data.

US stocks rose again yesterday as investors have been waiting for the outcome of discussion on a financial aid package for Greece.

The EUR/JPY is continuing to recover from 99.00/98.00. The immediate resistance is at 102.55/60, above which the pair should meet 107.85. Supports may be found at 101.12 and at 100.00.

Daily FX News Tuesday 7th February, 2012

admin — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 08:29:52 +0000

There is still great uncertainty over Greece and the negotiations. There has been a 24 hour strike called in response to the increment of the austerity measures that have been asked by the “troika” needed to pave the way for the next tranche of the bailout package.

The market is still expecting a deal to me made although they have ignored yet another deadline made given by the European Officials earlier on in the day. The Greek political parties will meet with the PM again this morning Athens time t try and agree to the strict demands laid down by the Troika. The agreement has to be made for releasing the second bailout package as without this they will be unable to pay for the 14.5 billion euro bond redemption on March 20th and the country would face a disorderly default.

UK house prices have risen 0.6% to £160,907 in January. This is the first rise in three months according to the Halifax.

The AUD/USD is hovering over 1.0800. In an unexpected move, the RBA has left the overnight interest rate unchanged at 4.35% which is widely against the opinion of many. The RBA expects the economic growth to follow the trend and inflation to remain in the target proximities. The AUD jumped 100 pips soon after the decision was made to 1.0810 which is a session high. At the time of writing the cross is advancing 0.68% at 1.0793.

The USD/JPY is gradually recovering from 76.00 support. Resistances at 76.87 and 77.16 will stand in its way, hampering bullish movement. Dips below 76.00 should be limited b supports.

FX-Foreign Exchange Daily News Monday 6th February, 2012

admin — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 09:28:19 +0000

As Greece gets ever closer to bankruptcy the talks to resolve the issue of restructuring the private held debt by Greece remains very slow and it appears it is no longer going ahead until there is enough guarantees that Athens can implement more severe austerity reforms. We understand that Athens is now pursuing the banks, insurers and ECB to take losses of about 70% so that Greece can ease its 100 BLN Euro debt burden with a 14.5 billion Euro deadline due to be paid by mid march.

This morning the EUR/USD is trading in the lower end of Monday’s range as the uncertainties in Greece are weighing hard in market sentiment.

The service sector of the UK has started 2012 on a positive note with business and activity expanding at a faster pace. The Business activity index hit the 10 month high pace of 56.0 last month compared t 54.0 in December’s reading. The sentiment also improved as business expectations soared to more than 15 year high.

The Euro zone retail sales declined unexpectedly in December. Retail sales fell 0.4 per cent from November after declining by the same amount in October.

The EUR/JPY is attempting to base around 99.00/98.90 and in the meantime rallies are unlikely to extend above 55 day ma at 1.1.21 and additional resistance at 102.55/60. Below 99.00/98.90 the pair will target 97.04.

The AUD/USD is trading in a tight range around 1.710-30 due to weak inflation report and the retail sales in Australia which after a stronger European opening, the pair has revolved to the downside to test the 1.0700 level.

Foreign Exchange Daily News Friday 3rd February, 2012

admin — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 07:47:02 +0000

Hopes of an agreement being sorted between Greece and its private bondholders dashed yesterday due to the oppositions of some of the Greek political leaders. Towards additional spending cuts demanded by the lenders as well as a disagreement between the IMF and Germany on the involvement of the ECB in the bond swap.

The creditors in Greece doubt the country’s ability to carry out all of the necessary reforms n order to reduce debt and have demanded more austerity measured which the Greek officials have said no to as they fear that implementing them would further aggravate an already serous recession in the country.

The EUR/USD is expected to remain capped by a key resistance line located at 1.3245/50 despite the pair’s recent advancement.

The GBP/USD uptrend is expected to continue from support level 1.5790 which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.5955.

The APPRECIATION OF THE Swiss franc against the single currency appears to be unstoppable with SNB’s interim President T Jordan saying the bank is ready to buy EUR/CHF in unlimited quantities in an effort to cut down the downside that has been accelerated after the SNB quarterly meeting last December.

Foreign Exchange News Tuesday 31st January, 2012

admin — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 07:23:54 +0000

According to sources this morning the Fiscal Compact has been ratified by 25 of 27countries across the European Union in the first economic summit of the year that was held yesterday in Brussels. This treaty will enforce countries that don’t have a bigger debt ratio than 60% of GDP and to fix their budget balance. Any countries that do not ratify the Treaty will not have access to the bailout fund.

It is thought that the long awaited agreement with regard to the debt swap between Greece and its private creditors may come into fruition shortly. We understand that there are some minor loose ends but the parties have been closing the differences for a debt swap that would see 100 billion taken off of Greece’s debt burden.

House prices in the UK stalled in January and this was mainly caused by the nationwide lack of purchasing power. On a year to year basis prices have fallen by 1.6% last month. The UK economy contracted by 0.2% in Q4, 2011.

The EUR/USD followed the upside during the European session on Monday into the Asian trading sessions climbing upto 1.3199 so far and with the expectation of 1.3200.

Swiss stocks lost ground on Monday after Greece and its private bondholders failed to finalise a debt swap agreement last week.

It is expected by FX analysts that the GBP/USD is attempting to break through a tough resistance situated at 1.5770/80. In case the currency pairs are successful, it will target 1.5810 and 1.5964 next. Supports at 1.5645 and 1.5570 should cover losses if any occur.

Daily FX News Monday 20th January, 2012

admin — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 08:34:00 +0000

The weekend has passed and as we understand no agreement has been made in the Greek PSI talks. We understand that its private creditors may come in to fruition shortly ad this is according to representatives dealing with the negotiations. It is thought that despite come minor loose ends that parties have been closing in differences for a debt swap that would see 100 billion Euro wiped off Greece’s debt burden.

With this agreement private investors would receive new bonds with face values half of the existing bonds and with a longer maturity and they would pay an average interest rate of slightly less than 4%. It is thought that the final deal will be put together and announced that a new 130 billion Euro loan programme for Greece which is being pieced together by the “Troika” and this is largely hoped that it will assist Greece in it’s loan borrowing through to 2015.

The Australian dollar has accelerated its downside on Monday after Fitch has placed four of the major banks on rating watch negative. The commodity currency was trimming some of the last weeks gains in Asian Sessions as disappointment circling the Greek front has triggered risk aversion.

The EUR/JPY has been in steady decline since the weekly opening and slipped to a low of 100.97 from an earlier session high of 101.43as an increase in global risk aversion stimulated broad demand for JPY safety. The pair saw an early boost from the reports that the Greek government are close to a new debt swap agreement.

New home sales declined in the US by 2.2% in December. The sales declined to 307,000 units on a seasonally adjusted basis while analysts expected the sales to rise by 2% to 320,000 units. On a positive note the gross domestic product in the US rose 2.8% and ended the economy for 2011 on a positive note.

Spain’s unemployment has increased to 22.8 percent in the last period of 2011 from 21.5 percent in the previous quarter and has surpassed the 5 million mark.

Friday 27th January, 2012 Fx News

admin — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 07:58:30 +0000

As we write this morning there are hopes of some progress and this has in turn spurred market optimism. There are rumors circulating that the meeting between the head of the institute of International Finance and senior bankers in Paris resulted in a new private sector creditors offer an interest rate of 3.75%.

The EUR.USD is clinging to 1.3100 after the close in the Asian session where it has traded in 1 1.3080-3115 range. Risk related assets were still well demanded on Thursday although the bid pressure did wane towards the end of trading in America as the PSI failed to deliver positive announcements along the day.

In the US the number of people seeking unemployment benefit rose to a seasonally adjusted 377,000 which was up from a four year low the previous week. In the long term all signals are pointing to a healthier job market.

UK retail sales fell in January according to the confederation of British Industry. Sales declined to -22 from 9 in December with above 0 indicating higher sales volumes and below 0 indicate lower.

GBP/USD The Cable is expected to move unto 1.5770/80 after it breaks through 1.5680 resistance. Initial support may be found at 1.5618 while subsequent lines are located at 1.5579 and 1.5544.

Daily FX Foreign exchange News Thursday 26th January, 2012

admin — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 08:26:16 +0000

This morning is has been reported that German business confidence has improved for the third month which is a sign that Europe’s largest economy may be avoiding a recession. In the UK the economy contracted by 0.2per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011 but a chief economist was reported as saying that any downturn is likely to be mild and short lived.

Yesterday, the head of the IMF warned about the difficult situation in Greece which is unable to reach a deal with its private bond holders. She said that there is a high risk of contagion in the Euro zone if the crisis in Greece starts to aggravate.

The EUR/USD currency couple has already penetrated resistance at 1.3075 and as we write is moving towards a tough zone located at 1.3140/45. This area in conjunction with 1.3245/50 is unlikely to allow EUR/UISD to advance any further.

The short term outlook for the USD/CHF is negative. The pressure on the key support at 0.9200 is increasing. If it does not withstand, a fall might extend down to 0.8995.

China has overtaken Japan as the world’s to coal importer for the first time in 2011, customs data from the countries has shown. This has been partly driven by robust Chinese demand.

The NZD/USD is printing new highs and as we write the cross is advancing 0.46% at 0.8211 above the resistance at 0.8209.